Fruitcakes & closet racists? No, but they are a threat to cameron
I do like a good fruit cake, with its deep richness, dense texture, burst of current-based flavour and that divine, faint whiff of a christmas past, regardless of the time of year. I imagine David Cameron likes a fruit cake, too. It’s not something that I have evidence for, but merely a presumption that one has made of his character. Perhaps he devours them as he chillaxes? We may never know how the dear leader likes his cakes. We may never know, in fact, wether or not the majority of members within UKIP like fruit cakes, either. But what we do know – is that the UK’s fastest growing party for decades, is certainly not full of them. Instead, they are simply a threat to the Conservatives.
I will move swiftly away from the bizarre cake references soon, but just as a starting point, I shall remind you all that Mr Cameron dismissed UKIP as a party ‘full of fruitcakes and closet racists’. The second point is nothing but a desperate attempt at smearing, while the former is just a bizarre characterisation.
As UKIP came second in the 2009 Euro Elections, and are on track to challenge for first place in 2014, one must ask wether Mr Cameron is actually running an entire country of fruit cakes. Meanwhile, on a national sense the fruit cakes have been polling at around 6 – 10% for the best part of a year – consistently matching – and occasionally outperforming – Cameron’s bedfellows; the Liberal Democrats.
What UKIP are, is anyones guess. I’m a (casual, relatively inactive) member, and even I struggle sometimes. Does the party want to win seats in Parliament? Does it realistically believe it is capable of doing so any time soon? Or does, indeed, the party just want to cause destruction. Get a relatively hefty proportion of votes spread evenly across the country in 2015 – enough to vanish any remaining glint in Cameron’s eye of a second term.
Is the party a libertarian, fair, loving party? Or is it a nastier version of the nasty party? Certainly, uninformed members of the public with only vague, periodic interests in politics still think the latter. Cameron’s chronicle of the ‘racists’ within UKIP may be outlandish. It may be downright offensive and categorically incorrect. In fact, I know it is wrong. But regardless, whenever I tell a non-political friend or other that I would ‘possibly vote UKIP’, I get looks of horror. A sudden disbelief. I feel like I have ‘fascist’ tattooed on my forehead. Luckily, the party is on its way to changing that horrifically incorrect perception – but it remains that the uninformed still see UKIP as a mildly racist, grumpy old man’s party. It is these uninformed subjects that vote in an election for Labour or Conservative. It is these subjects who decide an election.
Is the party a one man band? Or does it have many recognisable faces? 100% the former. As much as the party has tried to showcase the likes of deputy leader Paul Nuttall amongst others, 99% of the country would be hard pressed to name anybody else within the upper echelons of the party, other than Nigel Farage. You only have to look at the period in 2010 when Lord Pearson presided over the party. It was a disaster. Again, most of the country still thought Farage was in charge. Heh, that rhymes.
Is it a single issue party? Or does it have a fully fledged manifesto? Certainly the latter. But again, not many ordinary people know it. Thankfully, we as a country are sane enough to – in the majority – want a withdrawal from the iniquitous European Union. As a result, I’m confident that UKIP will win the 2014 European Elections within the UK. But then just 12 months later, you can bet that the vote share for Farage and friends will be decimated, they will fall to fourth in terms of number of seats and I wouldn’t be surprised if they fail to win a seat once more.
UKIP has to ask itself how it sees itself. Where its policies lie. How they are going to find more recognisable faces from within. And most importantly – what exactly is its electoral strategy? Even as a supporter, I can only see the party having an outside chance of winning a seat in 2015. And if it’s going to be anyone, it’ll likely be Farage in a political hot-potato of a constituency; like Buckingham in 2010.
But it does not need to win seats. Not in Westminster, anyway. It may feel like it needs to. Farage might be under pressure to make inroads. But I stress; he really doesn’t. If UKIP was to get at least 5% of the vote in a General Election (it got 3.1% in 2010), it would devastate the Conservative party. There is an extremely low chance of them getting the chance to form another coalition, let alone a majority government. UKIP does draw support from across the political spectrum – as YouGov polls show – but there is no denying that the majority come from the Tories.
I look at UKIP during the 2010 election, and then compare that to what I anticipate 2015 to be like. In 2010, Farage wasn’t leading the party. In 2015, he (hopefully) will be. In 2010, no newspaper vocally supported UKIP. In 2015, the Daily Express (hopefully) will be. In 2010, UKIP was coming off the back of second place in the European Elections a year earlier. In 2015, they will (hopefully) have won them. In 2010, UKIP were polling well under 5% for the year prior to the election. In 2015, I anticipate that being closer to the 10% mark.
Regardless of what polling figures show, the party will no doubt be snubbed by the bias of the BBC, locked out of leader debates and shunned by ‘political analysts’. It won’t get 10% of the vote. It might not get any seats.
But the 5% or so who vote UKIP in 2015 will destroy David Cameron, and rightly so. The hoodwinking, perfidious ‘conservative’ is nothing short of a lier – will anybody even believe him a second time, if he promises another EU referendum? No. And the right-of-center, Eurosceptic population of the United Kingdom will show their contempt for him. UKIP will rise, on the quiet, and destroy him for his lies, his love of the EU and his dishonest manifesto.
UKIP are no fruit cakes, Mr Cameron. But take note; this country wants out of the EU. And regardless of UKIP’s faults, problems and warts, they are a threat to you and your career. And I love that prospect, much like I love fruit cakes.